Derby Watch - April 17, 2006

We're three weeks out from the Derby, and here's my take on the contenders (these are listed in order of graded stakes earnings, according to Daily Racing Form):

I will be starting this list with the leaders, and updating this over the next few days, going through the contenders, in order of graded stakes money earned:


Discreet Cat: Brilliantly fast at 2; brilliantly fast at 3; eye-popping winner of big-money race in Dubai.
Comment: I hope he runs in the Derby, as he'll be a short-priced bet-against; no shot to win the race.

Brother Derek: Has just about everything you could want to see in a Kentucky Derby favorite. Is undefeated around two turns; has run fast; has beaten, repeatedly, in Southern California, what for now (with the exception of Stevie Wonderboy, whom he only beat once) looks like the best group of three-year-olds in the country. Solid favorite.
Comment: Certainly has earned where he is, and is a deserving Kentucky Derby favorite. Nonetheless, his running style - it seems that he has to be on the lead, or close to it; when Solis has tried to rate him, he's not run as well - might work against him. I think that he's a top-notch horse, but the running style of the Derby might work against him, and at 3-1 or so he's an underlay, and I'll be betting against him. Might be useful in the bottom half of exotics; could be like Afleet Alex last year, and good enough to hit the board after a tough trip, pace-wise.


Lawyer Ron: Has won six in a row going to Louisville; never lost on a true dirt track; can win from the catbird seat or the parking lot; the last horse to sweep the Southwest, Rebel, and Arkansas Derby was Smarty Jones.


Barbaro

Bob and John

Sinister Minister

Private Vow

A.P. Warrior

Sweetnorthernsaint

With A City

Sharp Humor

Bluegrass Cat

Steppenwolfer

Keyed Entry

Point Determined

Cause to Believe

Deputy Glitters

Storm Treasure

Jazil

Seaside Retreate